Flu cases increase, but US officials optimistic

WASHINGTON - The number of confirmed cases of swine flu continued to increase yesterday, affecting additional countries in Europe and Latin America and increasing the likelihood that the World Health Organization might raise its alert to the highest level.

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But health officials in the United States expressed some optimism about the course of the disease. And the Mexican health minister said that in his country, the hardest hit and where the flu was first reported, the worst had passed.

Janet Napolitano, US homeland security secretary, yesterday that WHO might "very well" elevate its flu alert from Level 5 to Level 6, the highest, this week. WHO officials have also indicated that such a move may be imminent.

Napolitano emphasized, however, that even the highest-level WHO warning was not in itself a cause for grave concern. It would indicate that the flu strain has reached pandemic status, but there can be a pandemic of a mild disease, and this strain is looking milder than first thought.

"Level 6, which they very well could go to this week, all that means is that it is widespread around the world," Napolitano said on CBS's "Face the Nation."

Other American health officials spoke of "encouraging signs" in the flu's course, even while cautioning of the substantial uncertainties surrounding any new strain.

The WHO said Saturday that there was still no evidence of the flu's sustained spread outside North America, a requisite condition for raising its alert level.

Still, 19 countries have now been affected, including Colombia, which yesterday reported the first confirmed case of swine flu in South America.

The course of the disease in Mexico - where 19 confirmed deaths have been linked to the flu, with many other deaths suspected - is now "in its phase of descent," Jose Angel Cordova, health minister, told a news conference, Reuters reported. Scientists suspect many of the dead in Mexico might have waited too long - a week on average - to seek help.

Worldwide, more than 900 people have been infected, predominantly in North America. Spain now has 44 confirmed cases, more than any other European country, but all the patients had responded well to treatment, the health ministry said. Britain, Italy, and Germany reported new cases, the Associated Press reported.

In Spain, all but four of the cases involved a patient who had recently traveled to Mexico, the Spanish Health Ministry said. Spain is a hub for travel to Mexico, with dozens of flights each day between the two countries.

The ministry said it would seek to tighten controls at airports today but did not offer any details about additional measures. Passengers arriving from affected areas this week have been completing questionnaires about possible virus symptoms, and cabin crews have been supplied with gloves and masks in an effort to isolate suspected cases and contain contagion. link...